AlphaBriefing – Institutional Insights (August 2025)
Powell’s Jackson Hole Pivot Lifts Cut Odds; BTC/ETH React
Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets at Jackson Hole (Aug. 22) by explicitly noting “downside risks to employment are rising,” a line traders read as opening the door to a September rate cut. CME FedWatch odds for a 25 bp move jumped toward ~87–90% versus ~69% just before the speech; the next FOMC is Sept. 16–17. Bitcoin rebounded ~2% intraday to about $114,200 after touching a record above $124,000 a week earlier, while 10-year yields eased ~6 bps to ~4.27%. Ether bounced ~8% after a ~12% pullback in the lead-up to Jackson Hole. New York Fed President John Williams said a September cut is “on the table,” but data-dependent.
Under the surface, derivatives signaled shifting positioning. CoinDesk noted BTC’s rally alongside a sharp repricing of cut odds, with options metrics showing renewed demand for upside in ETH after the dip. Morningstar recently highlighted CME odds pushing near 90%, while Reuters tallied major brokerages pivoting to a September baseline. Williams reiterated every meeting is “live,” underscoring that the decision will ride on upcoming jobs and inflation releases. For context, Powell’s full text emphasized that inflation had moved “much closer” to target and the labor market had cooled, reducing upside risks. Markets now calibrate exposures into the September meeting, with BTC near the low-$110Ks and ETH in the mid-$4Ks at publication time.
Commerce Plans to Put GDP “On-Chain,” Kicking Off Federal Blockchain Push
At an Aug. 26 White House cabinet meeting, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the department will begin publishing official economic statistics “on the blockchain,” starting with GDP and later expanding to other series once implementation details are finalized. Lutnick framed it as modernizing federal data distribution, “we’re going to put our GDP on the blockchain so people can use it for data and distribution,” but did not name a network or timeline. Goals of transparency, tamper evident dissemination, and machine-readable access across agencies were of high importance.
Follow-ups from industry press reiterated the “GDP first” scope and potential to broaden to other departments after Commerce “irons out” the operational model. Outlets noted parallels to international public-sector blockchain experiments, while also pointing out that putting data on-chain addresses integrity of dissemination rather than the methodology of the underlying estimates. No vendor selections, standards, or hash-anchoring approaches were disclosed. For the moment, stakeholders should treat this as a distribution pilot with policy signaling value, pending concrete technical architecture and compliance details. A transcript-linked round-up captured the announcement’s headline but likewise reported no additional specifications on ledgers, identity, or access controls.
Filings Stack Up Ahead of Fall Crypto-ETF Deadlines
Issuers kept pressing forward in August as the SEC nudged market structure along. Seven managers including Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, VanEck, CoinShares, and Canary, filed or amended spot Solana ETF S-1s in late July/early August after earlier SEC requests for updates. The agency, meanwhile, has delayed decisions on Bitwise and 21Shares spot SOL proposals to Oct. 16, 2025. Separately, deadlines for multiple XRP spot ETFs were pushed into October (variously Oct. 19–24 depending on filer and venue). The cumulative effect is a crowded fall window with single-asset altcoin ETFs lining up behind already-listed BTC/ETH products, but still subject to disclosure, custody, and market-quality scrutiny.
Diversified products saw mixed signals. In late July, the SEC approved, then stayed Bitwise’s plan to convert the BITW Crypto Index Fund to an ETF, keeping multi-asset launches in limbo pending further review. Reporting also points to the Commission advancing guidance to streamline crypto ETF approvals over time—potentially moving toward more standardized listing mechanics that could compress review timelines—though issuers still face iterative amendments. Net-net, paperwork and process churn continued through August, but the market’s “launch window” narrative now orbits mid-to-late October statutory dates for SOL and XRP decisions while multi-asset products await clarity.
Crypto Equity Pipeline Builds: Bullish Debuts, BitGo Files, More on Deck
Bullish priced its NYSE IPO at $37 and more than doubled on debut (opening near $90), implying a ~$13.16B valuation and raising about $1.11B—a marquee print that lifted sentiment for other crypto listings. Gemini followed with an IPO filing showing H1 2025 revenue $68.6M and a $282.5M net loss; it plans to list on Nasdaq under GEMI, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup as leads. Figure Technology Solutions disclosed H1 revenue +22.4% to $191M and $29M profit, with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and BofA bookrunning its Nasdaq listing (FIGR).
On the custody side, BitGo said July 21 that it confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, joining a growing queue of crypto infrastructure names seeking public capital. Reuters framed sector market value near $4T and noted BitGo’s 2013 founding and $1.75B valuation from a 2023 raise. More broadly, deal flow benefited from stronger reception for tech listings and “pop” dynamics, with analysts debating whether underwriters are leaning conservative on pricing. Taken together—Bullish’s pop, Gemini’s public S-1, Figure’s profitability milestones, and BitGo’s confidential filing—the listed crypto equity set is expanding from exchanges into lenders, custodians, and services firms as the post-Labor-Day calendar firms up.
